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08/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the final week of October 2010 arrives, and the attention of the South Florida sports fan is focused on the Miami Dolphins, you'll know things are going very well for Tony Sparano's team.
If the Dolphins are, say, 3-3 after they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 24th, that probably isn't going to cut it.
Two days later, the Miami Heat travel to meet the Boston Celtics to open what many expect to be a momentous 2010-11 season for one of the most talented NBA rosters ever assembled.
Chad Henne, Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby may have their own brand of star power, but their collective Q rating is unlikely to be a match for that of King James, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh.
All the Dolphins can hope to do is win enough football games to divert a portion of the local attention. While the Miami brain trust of Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland and Sparano is hardly worried about the impact the stars of the hardwood will have on the Dolphins' local profile, they have assembled a team that they expect to be competitive well into the winter.
One season after orchestrating a 10-game turnaround that included an AFC East title in 2008, Miami took a step back to 7-9 last year, and subsequently made offseason moves to prevent further slippage.
On offense, a long-sought-after weapon was added when the team traded for the Pro Bowl wideout Marshall, and the interior o-line was also tweaked.
Defensively, Parcells and Co. swapped out coordinator Paul Pasqualoni with Mike Nolan, and brought in talent like Dansby, ex-Saints pass rusher Charles Grant and rookies Jared Odrick and Koa Misi to turn around a flagging unit.
All of the moves were necessary for the Dolphins to stay competitive in a division where the Jets are the league's media darlings heading into 2010, and where the Patriots haven't had a losing season since Tom Brady was a rookie reserve.
Though few are talking about the Fins in the expectant tones reserved for the Heat, a couple of the right breaks could have the teams competing fiercely for attention in the local papers.
For Sparano, the lack of headlines - and the disappointing way the 2009 season unraveled - should have Miami eager to pile up wins and change perceptions about the direction of this team. In fact, the Dolphins' motto this season is "Feed the Wolf," and the consumable in this case is wins.
"I had a meeting with the group and kind of got into them a little bit during that practice about 7-9 not being good enough and how this football team shouldn't be fat," Sparano said early in training camp. "They should be starving; they should be hungry and want to feed the wolf."
"From our end out here," Sparano continued, "we feed the wolf when we do something good and that's what our guys understand. Small successes will lead to bigger successes down the way."
Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Miami Dolphins, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:
2009 RECORD: 7-9 (3rd, AFC East)
LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2008, lost to Baltimore, 27-9, in AFC Wild Card
COACH (RECORD): Tony Sparano (18-14 in two seasons with Dolphins, 18-14 overall)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dan Henning
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Nolan
OFFENSIVE STAR: Brandon Marshall, WR (101 receptions, 1120 yards, 10 TD with Denver)
DEFENSIVE STAR: Karlos Dansby, LB (109 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack with Arizona)
OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 4th rushing, 20th passing, 15th scoring
DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 18th rushing, 24th passing, t25th scoring
KEY ADDITIONS: WR Brandon Marshall (from Broncos), G Richie Incognito (from Bills), G John Jerry (3rd Round, Ole Miss), OL Cory Procter (from Cowboys), DL Jared Odrick (1st Round, Penn State), DE Marques Douglas (from Jets), DE Charles Grant (from Saints) LB Karlos Dansby (from Cardinals), OLB Koa Misi (2nd Round, Utah), ILB Tim Dobbins (from Chargers), DB Kevin Hobbs (from Lions)
KEY DEPARTURES: WR/RS Ted Ginn Jr. (to 49ers), G Justin Smiley (to Jaguars), NT Jason Ferguson (retired), DE Phillip Merling (out for season/injured), OLB Jason Taylor (to Jets), OLB Joey Porter (to Cardinals), LB Akin Ayodele (to Broncos), LB Reggie Torbor (to Bills), CB Nathan Jones (to Broncos), S Gibril Wilson (to Bengals)
QB: Though his first season as an NFL starter could not be called spectacular, Henne (2878 passing yards, 12 TD, 14 INT) showed enough positives to suggest that he can be a consistently capable signal-caller down the road. Henne went 7-6 after taking over for Chad Pennington four games into the 2009 campaign, making the occasional mistakes you would expect of a 24-year-old quarterback but also displaying general accuracy and leadership qualities. With a year under his belt and Marshall in the fold as a bona fide No. 1 target, Henne should take a step forward this season. The battle to back Henne up will be between Pennington (413 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) and Tyler Thigpen (83 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), and may not be settled until late in the preseason. Pennington is 34 and has 86 games worth of starting experience in the NFL, but has also had three shoulder surgeries and can't be completely counted on. Thigpen is athletic but is short on NFL experience and even shorter on winning experience. Pat White (81 rushing yards), a second-round pick in 2009, looks a failed experiment and could be asked to play wideout.
RB: One of the bright spots for the Dolphins in 2009 was the play of Ricky Williams (1121 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 13 TD), who became the first back in NFL history with five years between 1,000-yard seasons. Williams is 33 but is still in outstanding condition, and will be a major part of the Fins' two- back system again. The main component of that system, if he stays healthy, will be Ronnie Brown (648 rushing yards, 8 TD, 14 receptions). Brown's 2009 season ended due to a foot injury suffered in mid-November, marking the second time in the last three years the former No. 2 overall pick has failed to last the year. Patrick Cobbs (36 rushing yards) comes off a major knee injury, but if he recovers sufficiently, he should make the team ahead of Lex Hilliard (89 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 3 TD) due to his abilities on special teams. Lousaka Polite (123 rushing yards, 11 receptions) appeared in all 16 games for Miami at fullback last season, and is expected to remain in that role.
WR/TE: The Dolphins passing game lacked explosive outside options last season, and that deficiency was something that Parcells and GM Jeff Ireland addressed by dealing for Marshall. Marshall has had off-the-field problems and has never been much of a team player, but it's hard to argue with his three consecutive 100-catch, 1,000-yard seasons. His presence should help free up the rest of Miami's wideout group, which includes Davone Bess (76 receptions, 2 TD), Brian Hartline (31 receptions, 3 TD), and Greg Camarillo (50 receptions). Look for Hartline to win the job opposite Marshall, and for Bess to end up in the slot. The Fins also have high hopes for Patrick Turner, a 2009 third-round pick who appeared in just two games last season and did not have a catch. There are some familiar names at tight end, where Anthony Fasano (31 receptions, 2 TD) , Joey Haynos (19 receptions, 2 TD), and Kory Sperry (3 receptions, 1 TD) all return from last year's crew, and David Martin is back with the team after missing all of last season with a knee injury.
OL: Though there is some uncertainty on the Miami offensive line, it's not on the outside where tackles Jake Long (left side) and Vernon Carey (right side) are firmly entrenched. Long has made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons, and Carey has not missed a start since 2005. Nate Garner, who started eight games at guard last season, looks like the top tackle backup and will also be in the mix at guard. There's a better chance the starting guards will be brand new, however. The Dolphins signed the volatile but serviceable Richie Incognito in free agency, and spent a third-round pick on mauler John Jerry. Their presence spells trouble for 12-game 2009 starter Donald Thomas, and ex- Cowboy Cory Procter is not a sure thing either. At center, Jake Grove and Joe Berger split time as the starter last year, and are battling for the job again in the preseason.
DL: The ability of the Dolphins defense to rebound from a disappointing 2009 will hinge largely on the development of a new-look three-man front. Following the retirement of nose tackle Jason Ferguson and the loss of end Phillip Merling for the season due to injury, the Fins must have players like nose tackles Paul Soliai (25 tackles) and Randy Starks (56 tackles, 7 sacks), young ends Jared Odrick (1st Round, Penn State) and Kendall Langford (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and incoming vets Marques Douglas (64 tackles, 1.5 sacks with the Jets) and Charles Grant (44 tackles, 5.5 sacks with the Saints) converge to form a reliable group. Starks and Odrick are both being asked to take on different responsibilities than they've been accustomed to. As they go, so might go this unit.
LB: In keeping with the general offseason demolition of the Miami front seven, the linebacking corps will have a radical new look as well. Gone are outside mainstays Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, while inside regulars Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor have waved goodbye too. Inside linebacker Channing Crowder (51 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is the lone starting holdover from this group, and should love playing alongside Dansby. Dansby makes a ton of his plays and his energy will offer an instant upgrade. Things are less certain on the outside, where second-round rookie Koa Misi (Utah) is an unknown quantity and former CFLer Cameron Wake (23 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is being asked to take on a much larger role after a solid 2009 as a reserve. Holdovers Charlie Anderson (17 tackles, 2 sacks) and Quentin Moses (6 tackles, 1 sack) will have to beat out ex-Lions bust Ikaika Alama-Francis for a reserve job on the outside. Former Charger Tim Dobbins (53 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT with San Diego) looks like the No. 1 backup at ILB.
DB: Though their rank of 24th in NFL passing defense a year ago, might suggest differently, the strength of the Miami defense entering 2010 could be in the secondary. Corners Vontae Davis (52 tackles, 4 INT) and Sean Smith (39 tackles) are still learning, but did a credible job in '09 and should continue to improve. At strong safety, Yeremiah Bell (114 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 sacks) made his first Pro Bowl last year and has appeared in all 16 games during four of the past five seasons. The biggest question in the defensive backfield is at free safety, where new coordinator Mike Nolan has to choose between Chris Clemons (13 tackles) or promising fifth-round draft choice Reshad Jones (Georgia). Tyrone Culver (32 tackles, 1 INT) is still around as well, but is best utilized in a backup role. The corner depth is thin, with shaky former first-rounder Jason Allen (22 tackles) and former Lion and Seahawk Kevin Hobbs (32 tackles with the Lions) looking like the best options there at the moment. Will Allen (21 tackles, 1 INT), who is coming off a knee injury, is uncertain to be available for Week 1.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Dolphins should be all set in the kicking game. Dan Carpenter (25-28 FG) was among the league's most accurate kickers a year ago, and Brandon Fields (46.3 avg.) was solid at punter. The departed Ted Ginn made his biggest contribution as a Fin in the return game, but the team shouldn't lose much sleep without him there. Davone Bess (7.5 punt return avg.) and Patrick Cobbs (22.6 kickoff return avg.) look like the answer on punt returns and kickoff returns, respectively. John Denney returns for his sixth season as the Miami long snapper.
PROGNOSIS: For all of the expectations attached to the Jets, and to a lesser extent the Patriots, this season, it's important to note that the Dolphins went 3-1 against those teams (including a sweep of the Jets) last year. Though the record reflects that this was a a 7-9 club in the end, Miami actually had a 7-3 stretch of football at one point and was very much in the playoff hunt before falling apart in the final three weeks. Against that backdrop, an optimist might suggest that the Dolphins should be very much in the mix for the 2010 AFC East title. A pessimist, though, will point to two separate three-game losing streaks as evidence of how things seem to go south quickly in Miami, and how a roster chock full of new faces doesn't necessarily lend itself to consistent football. In a contentious division race, the needle seems to lean closer to the Dolphins being on the outside of the postseason looking in when all is said and done, but you can also bet on Sparano's squad being a tough out each and every week.
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Garza aims for 12th victory as Rays take on Rangers >>
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Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
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