Indians already looking to the future

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2008 - (Baseball Betting) - With the 2008 season virtually a lost cause for the Cleveland Indians, what better time than the present to start looking toward the future?

And so the auditions for the 2009 roster have officially gotten underway.

Manager Eric Wedge says he wants to "get a good, long look" at some of his younger guys to see who has staying power, and who doesn't. Specifically, he'd like to see if one or two of the younger players can step up and assume a role in the corner outfield.

One candidate who seems up to the challenge is Ben Francisco, who is hitting .284 while being thrown into the fire of the 3-hole in the lineup. Another is Shin-Soo Choo, who has shown signs of becoming a serviceable big leaguer despite working his way back from Tommy John ligament replacement surgery last year. He has 23 RBI in 41 games and, as hitting coach Derek Shelton observed, has been driving the ball to all fields and having more quality at-bats.

But the cloud hovering over the distance for Choo (26) is a mandated two-year military obligation in his native South Korea, which must be served before he turns 30. His only outs are to achieve U.S. citizenship, or to help Korea win the gold medal in baseball at the 2010 Asian Games.

To a degree, his situation represents the Indians' approach lately; take the good with the bad. And for the Tribe, one noticeable tally for the good side has been the team's mind set lately.

"We talked about things (after C.C. Sabathia was traded)," Wedge told the Akron Beacon Journal this week. "(The players) needed to get back to being themselves. Have fun and execute on the field."

The team looks to be doing just that. With the pressure off and the atmosphere relaxed, the Indians have won seven of their last 10. That stretch does, however, include back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels on Tuesday and Wednesday.

After an off day Thursday, the Tribe will kick off a seven-game homestand with three games against the Minnesota Twins, then four against the Detroit Tigers.

BLAKE STAYING OR GOING?

The soon-to-be expired contract of infielder Casey Blake has left Cleveland's management with a tough call to make. Common logic would suggest it's a good idea to bring back a guy who can play both corner infield and corner

outfield spots, and who is hitting .287 with 24 doubles and 58 RBI. But it's also logical for a rebuilding team to cut ties with a 35-year-old player who likely will seek three more years in excess of the $6.1 million per year he is making right now.

"He is the consummate professional," Wedge told the Beacon Journal. "He is a much bigger part of this team than people realize. Part of that is his personality and attitude in the clubhouse. He has always been a great teammate."

Blake has said his preference is to stay in Cleveland, a place he has called home for the past six seasons. But with several teams expressing interest (Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Devil Rays, according to reports), general manager Mark Shapiro might be inclined to make a move, but only if those teams show enough interest.

BULLPEN IN NEED OF A MAKEOVER

With the Rafael Betancourt-Joe Borowski combination panning out to be a bigger disappointment than Teen Wolf Two, a couple spots have been left open for the taking. Problem is, the Indians feel they only have one viable candidate to fill the lesser of the two open slots in the 'pen.

Masa Kobayashi (4-4, 3.30) has saved six games in eight chances, but Wedge likes him best in a setup role. Wedge also likes what he has seen lately from left-hander Rafael Perez (1-1, 3.18) and right-hander Ed Mujica (0-1, 4.34). Juan Rincon is also on board, but it remains to be seen whether he can revert to his old self when he was a lockdown setup man for the Twins a couple years ago.

Aside from that, nothing is a sure thing amongst the relievers, who have combined for a 9-18 record and a 5.11 ERA this season. The team will almost certainly bring in a closer via free agency this offseason. Meanwhile, the rest of the pen remains unsettled.

"The roles are wide open," Wedge said. "But I do see signs. We've got plenty of time to continue to look at these guys. They're going to have an opportunity to step up and figure out if they can play a prominent role in this thing."

WHO'S HOT

Shortstop Jhonny Peralta is hitting .337 over a 30-day span.

WHO'S NOT

Good news for Matt Ginter, who seemed like the obvious choice to be designated for assignment once Fausto Carmona makes his return on Saturday. Aaron Laffey has given up 16 runs in his last two starts and could very well have pitched his way out of the rotation.

A LOOK AHEAD

Cliff Lee (13-2, 2.29) will take the hill Friday against Livan Hernandez (10-6, 5.29) and the Twins. On Saturday Carmona (4-2, 3.10) will make his first start in two months because of a left hip strain, and he will face Scott Baker (6-3, 3.26). And on Sunday, Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 7.33) will toe the rubber against Nick Blackburn (7-6, 3.83). Paul Byrd (4-10, 5.28) and Detroit's Kenny Rogers (8-6, 4.48) will square off on Monday.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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